US Q1 2023 GDP raised to 0.5% vs. 0% – Barclays

The Barclays Research Team raised its forecasts for US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2023, in its latest client note.

Key quotes

“US GDP for the first quarter raised to a 0.5% expansion, from its original estimate of zero growth.”

“Barclays’ new forecast was a decline from its estimate of a fourth-quarter rise of 2.0% last year.”

“Payroll gains are likely to drop from an average of 241,000 per month in the fourth quarter to 100,000 per month in the first quarter of 2023.“

“Fed will cut the target fed funds rate to between 4.5% and 4.75% at the end of 2023, and continue it lower through next year, hitting 3.0% to 3.25% by the end of 2024.”