USD/BRL seen trading at 5.05 by end-2023 – Rabobank

Over the last week, USD/BRL depreciated 0.1%. Economists at Rabobank analyze the pair’s outlook.

A market repricing of Fed cuts this year could erode BRL gains

The BRL and other EM currencies still enjoy gains from local domestic rates held in restrictive territory and from the high spread over global interest rates. But, a market repricing of Fed cuts this year could erode BRL gains. 

For now, the market expectation of a reversal of the US tightening cycle and a more benign view of the fiscal framework still lead the BRL to post gains. 

As appreciation drivers prevail in the short term, we now see the USD/BRL trading at 5.05 by end-2023 and 5.15 by end-2024.