US Payrolls (Oct): That Spooky Feeling – TDS

Strategists from Toronto-Dominion Securities are out with a note explaining why they're expecting a deeper contraction in both the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Friday report and US Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) compared to the median market forecast.

Payrolls to soften at a steeper rate for October

We look for payrolls to soften in October, registering a 140k gain and reflecting a mean-reversion after a booming NFP report in September. 

Average hourly earnings likely advanced 0.2% m/m for a third consecutive month, with the y/y measure dropping to 4.0%.

A weak payroll report could spark a continuation of the recent bull flattening move in rates.

A moderation in headline job gains coupled with another 0.2% m/m increase for AHE will put further pressure on the USD.