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2 Mar 2015
China manufacturing PMI remains subdued but tentative signs of stabilisation - Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, reviews the Chinese PMI data release, and further expects the official PMI to improve modestly in the coming months.
Key Quotes
“China’s official manufacturing PMI for February, published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), improved to 49.9 (Consensus 49.7, our estimate 50.0), up from 49.8 in January. This is the first improvement in the NBS manufacturing PMI since July 2014. The non-manufacturing PMI also rose slightly, from 53.7 in January to 53.9 in February.”
“The details were slightly positive, with new orders improving slightly from 50.2 to 50.4 and export orders also improving marginally from 48.4 to 48.5, although export orders remain subdued.”
“Inventories of finished goods also cut a faster pace in February, with the finished goods inventory component falling to 47.0, from 48.0 in January. Hence, the new order-inventory balance improved in February but overall remains at a neutral level.”
“The slight increase in the NBS manufacturing PMI in February is consistent with the slight improvement seen in the flash estimate for the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, which also improved slightly in February. This suggests the Chinese economy remains relatively subdued but with tentative signs of stabilisation.”
“Looking ahead, we still expect the Chinese PMIs to move moderately higher in coming months, supported by modest monetary easing, stabilisation of the property market and resilient exports.”
“In our view, the year-on-year GDP growth in H1 15 will remain relatively stable above 7% y/y, due partly to favourable year-on-year comparisons.”
Key Quotes
“China’s official manufacturing PMI for February, published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), improved to 49.9 (Consensus 49.7, our estimate 50.0), up from 49.8 in January. This is the first improvement in the NBS manufacturing PMI since July 2014. The non-manufacturing PMI also rose slightly, from 53.7 in January to 53.9 in February.”
“The details were slightly positive, with new orders improving slightly from 50.2 to 50.4 and export orders also improving marginally from 48.4 to 48.5, although export orders remain subdued.”
“Inventories of finished goods also cut a faster pace in February, with the finished goods inventory component falling to 47.0, from 48.0 in January. Hence, the new order-inventory balance improved in February but overall remains at a neutral level.”
“The slight increase in the NBS manufacturing PMI in February is consistent with the slight improvement seen in the flash estimate for the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI, which also improved slightly in February. This suggests the Chinese economy remains relatively subdued but with tentative signs of stabilisation.”
“Looking ahead, we still expect the Chinese PMIs to move moderately higher in coming months, supported by modest monetary easing, stabilisation of the property market and resilient exports.”
“In our view, the year-on-year GDP growth in H1 15 will remain relatively stable above 7% y/y, due partly to favourable year-on-year comparisons.”