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2 Mar 2015
UK manufacturing PMI might show a decline – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, previews today’s UK manufacturing PMI data release, forecasting February's PMI number to register a decline to 52.5.
Key Quotes
“The UK manufacturing PMI edged up to 53.0 in January from 52.7 in December. January’s rise was underpinned by a strengthening in both new orders and output, partially offset by the other components.”
“The PMI survey has been hovering around current levels since the autumn – a little above longer-run averages but clearly down on H1 2014. Therefore, whether more weight is attached to current levels or to the recent change will shape views about the prospects for economic growth over the next quarter or so – we tend to put more weight on the latter, in part because of the tendency of the surveys in recent times to persistently over-estimate growth rates on the official data.”
“The euro area ‘flash’ manufacturing PMI was barely altered at 51.1 in February from 51.0 in January (a little above the levels prevailing for most of H2 2014 but some way below the H1 average),with the German IFO survey similarly little changed in February (the current assessment edged down, expectations edged up).”
“Oil prices staged a partial rebound in February and sterling continued to appreciate, both of which should exert a modest downside influence. Overall, we judge that moderate downside risks predominate and forecast the UK manufacturing PMI to edge down to 52.5 in February.”
Key Quotes
“The UK manufacturing PMI edged up to 53.0 in January from 52.7 in December. January’s rise was underpinned by a strengthening in both new orders and output, partially offset by the other components.”
“The PMI survey has been hovering around current levels since the autumn – a little above longer-run averages but clearly down on H1 2014. Therefore, whether more weight is attached to current levels or to the recent change will shape views about the prospects for economic growth over the next quarter or so – we tend to put more weight on the latter, in part because of the tendency of the surveys in recent times to persistently over-estimate growth rates on the official data.”
“The euro area ‘flash’ manufacturing PMI was barely altered at 51.1 in February from 51.0 in January (a little above the levels prevailing for most of H2 2014 but some way below the H1 average),with the German IFO survey similarly little changed in February (the current assessment edged down, expectations edged up).”
“Oil prices staged a partial rebound in February and sterling continued to appreciate, both of which should exert a modest downside influence. Overall, we judge that moderate downside risks predominate and forecast the UK manufacturing PMI to edge down to 52.5 in February.”