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3 Jun 2015
G10 FX: EUR/SEK topside favoured – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Oliver Harvey, Macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, ranks G10 FX using technicals on the basis of favourability of trade, noting that USD/JPY and NZD/USD are stretched while EUR/SEK looks attractive.
Key Quotes
“USD/JPY is the top technical currency pair in G10. It is the most trending cross and breaking new ground to the upside. It is also not volatile from a realized vol perspective although implied vol is high. However, while it is not stretched from a risk reversal perspective, it is extremely stretched from an RSI perspective, in the 2 percentile of stretchiness.”
“Similarly, NZD/USD is trending (87th percentile) and breaking new ground (98th percentile) but looks a little stretched.”
“EUR/SEK looks attractive (to the topside). The cross is trending (in the 90th VHF percentile) but is not stretched from either an RSI or risk reversal point of view.”
“USD/CAD is also highly trending to the upside, in addition to being least volatile as per realized volatility. It is not yet at extreme levels of stretchiness.”
Key Quotes
“USD/JPY is the top technical currency pair in G10. It is the most trending cross and breaking new ground to the upside. It is also not volatile from a realized vol perspective although implied vol is high. However, while it is not stretched from a risk reversal perspective, it is extremely stretched from an RSI perspective, in the 2 percentile of stretchiness.”
“Similarly, NZD/USD is trending (87th percentile) and breaking new ground (98th percentile) but looks a little stretched.”
“EUR/SEK looks attractive (to the topside). The cross is trending (in the 90th VHF percentile) but is not stretched from either an RSI or risk reversal point of view.”
“USD/CAD is also highly trending to the upside, in addition to being least volatile as per realized volatility. It is not yet at extreme levels of stretchiness.”