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6 Aug 2015
Australian jobs report: Clarity awaited - ANZ
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Justin Fabo, Senior Economist at ANZ, argues that although employment growth remains strength, more data are needed to bring in some clarity over the latest mixed Australian labour market report.
Key Quotes:
“A very mixed report obviously. Normally the unemployment rate and employment-to population ratio move in opposite directions but not currently. We are inclined to discount both the jump in the unemployment rate and the strong jump in employment in this report.”
“Females accounted for the entire jump in the unemployment rate in July – historically sharp moves in female outturns have had a habit of being reversed subsequently.”
“The ABS have informed us that sample rotation had a sizeable effect on boosting the participation rate in July but had little impact on the unemployment rate. This means that sample rotation boosted the employment numbers.”
“We have to take this information at face value but remain wary of some ‘payback’ in the numbers in coming months.”
“The outlook: our view is that employment growth will moderate over the second half of 2015, consistent with the slower recent trend in job advertising and a softening trend in GDP growth.”
“Until we get clarity on labour market conditions, the RBA is firmly on the sidelines.”
Key Quotes:
“A very mixed report obviously. Normally the unemployment rate and employment-to population ratio move in opposite directions but not currently. We are inclined to discount both the jump in the unemployment rate and the strong jump in employment in this report.”
“Females accounted for the entire jump in the unemployment rate in July – historically sharp moves in female outturns have had a habit of being reversed subsequently.”
“The ABS have informed us that sample rotation had a sizeable effect on boosting the participation rate in July but had little impact on the unemployment rate. This means that sample rotation boosted the employment numbers.”
“We have to take this information at face value but remain wary of some ‘payback’ in the numbers in coming months.”
“The outlook: our view is that employment growth will moderate over the second half of 2015, consistent with the slower recent trend in job advertising and a softening trend in GDP growth.”
“Until we get clarity on labour market conditions, the RBA is firmly on the sidelines.”