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3 Sep 2015
NZD/USD still bearish below 50 DMA
FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is capped by the 50-DMA at 0.6591 on the daily chart and is bearish below here.
NZD/USD has benefited from a slightly improved risk appetite towards the end of this week, but the data and such outlooks in commodity prices have not been promising, with ANZ's business confidence dire at -29.1 on a previous -15.3, while Fonterra scramble to try and bolster a struggling global dairy market by lending to NZ participants at zero cost and cutting supply that lead to what looked like an improvement in the auction this week that was up on the previous.
NZD/USD now about Nonfarm Payrolls
We are now awaiting the outcome of tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls report, but given the ADP report, we are not expecting any huge or positive divergence from expectations and given the dovishness of the ECB today, and G20 Central Bankers meeting over the next 48hrs, where China will be a big topic, risks in the bird are to the downside in terms of fundamentals. However, it could be buoyed eventually by a weaker greenback should market sentiment continue to price out a September rate hike which has already dropped to a 30% chance from yesterday's Fed funds futures that is down from 38% after today's ECB's announcements.
NZD/USD levels to watch
A break of 0.6300 would be significant and opens-up an avenue to 0.6220 and 0.5910. To the upside, a break of the 50 DMA is required to alleviate immediate downside pressures, but , until the bird can get into today's vicinity of the 200 DMA at 0.7200/20, it is hard to see a bullish picture emerging.
NZD/USD has benefited from a slightly improved risk appetite towards the end of this week, but the data and such outlooks in commodity prices have not been promising, with ANZ's business confidence dire at -29.1 on a previous -15.3, while Fonterra scramble to try and bolster a struggling global dairy market by lending to NZ participants at zero cost and cutting supply that lead to what looked like an improvement in the auction this week that was up on the previous.
NZD/USD now about Nonfarm Payrolls
We are now awaiting the outcome of tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls report, but given the ADP report, we are not expecting any huge or positive divergence from expectations and given the dovishness of the ECB today, and G20 Central Bankers meeting over the next 48hrs, where China will be a big topic, risks in the bird are to the downside in terms of fundamentals. However, it could be buoyed eventually by a weaker greenback should market sentiment continue to price out a September rate hike which has already dropped to a 30% chance from yesterday's Fed funds futures that is down from 38% after today's ECB's announcements.
NZD/USD levels to watch
A break of 0.6300 would be significant and opens-up an avenue to 0.6220 and 0.5910. To the upside, a break of the 50 DMA is required to alleviate immediate downside pressures, but , until the bird can get into today's vicinity of the 200 DMA at 0.7200/20, it is hard to see a bullish picture emerging.