NZD/USD: on a post NFP's minor recovery ahead of RBNZ this week
NZD/USD has been on a minor recovery of the downside from last week's payrolls data that knocked the bird of its perch from above the 0.72 handle and down to
Nonfarm payrolls was a surprise to the upside for markets that had been in anticipation of just 180k jobs for the month of July, but instead a reading of over 250,000 came in as the headline and the dollar rallied. However, for the week ahead and on a target to get below the psychological 0.70, analysts at Westpac explained that a dovish surprise from the RBNZ is required.
"The NZ calendar this week is all about the RBNZ. We expect the MPS on Thursday to deliver a 25bp cut to 2.0% and maintain an easing bias (we see almost zero chance it doesn’t cut). This outcome is what most expect and is fully priced. The potential surprises would be a neutral bias, which would boost the NZD; or a strong signal of further easing to 1.75% or lower, which would push the NZD materially lower."
What price levels and patterns have to be considered?
Spot is presently trading at 0.7135, and next resistance can be seen at 0.7137 (Daily Open), 0.7143 (Weekly Low), 0.7146 (Daily High), 0.7150 (Hourly 200 SMA) and 0.7162 (Daily Classic PP). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.7132 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.7131 (Daily 20 SMA), 0.7122 (Yesterday's Low), 0.7103 (Daily Classic S1) and 0.7091 (Weekly Classic S1). Regarding candlestick formations, we can see Doji formation on the 4-hour.