RBNZ: Zero chance of a change in the OCR during the next four meetings - Westpac

Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the market pricing for the RBNZ nudged higher during the past week, continuing to price a zero chance of a change in the OCR during the next four meetings, but a 100% chance of a hike by Nov 2017.

Key Quotes

“Our own macroeconomic forecasts have the RBNZ remaining on hold for the next two years but we understand the rationale for markets wanting to be well ahead of the game. If inflation and inflation expectation data keep unfolding in an upward direction during the months ahead, OIS pricing will only move further in an upward direction.”

“The next communication on the economy and monetary policy from the RBNZ is on 26 Jan, when RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks in Christchurch in the customary start-of-year speech to the Canterbury Chamber of Commerce.”