NZ: Truckometer Heavy Traffic Index bounced 4.1% in January - ANZ

New Zealand’s ANZ Truckometer Heavy Traffic Index bounced 4.1% in January off its 4.4% December fall (seasonally adjusted), while the Light Traffic Index eased a further 0.5% m/m (charts are 3-month average), notes Sharon Zollner, Chief Economist at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index rose 4.1% in January (seasonally adjusted – sa), reversing much of its 4.4% fall the previous month, and reinforcing a positive trend. Due to a strong performance in October and November the Index suggests the economy grew solidly in Q4, despite the dip in the December month. The lift in January is a good start to the New Year.”

“Annual growth in the Heavy Traffic Index is holding up at historically strong rates, at over 6% y/y.”

“The Light Traffic Index eased a further 0.5% m/m in January (sa). This index gives a 6- month lead on the direction of the economy and is best interpreted as a measure of momentum.”

“The three-month average of the Light Traffic index has dipped slightly, sending a slightly softer signal for GDP growth from the middle of this year. Annual growth in the index has eased slightly but remains very strong. Given that the economy is hitting capacity constraints and uncertainty has taken a step up, it would not be surprising to see a bit of a cooling in the pace of GDP growth. That said, the still-strong upward trend in the Light Traffic index (despite the small dip) suggests the economy still has plenty of momentum.”