UK Jan retail sales to show the most anemic of rebounds – Societe Generale

Analysts at Societe Generale offer a sneak peek on what to expect from today’s UK retail sales data that will be released at 0930 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“The very high volatility of retail sales tends often leads one to expect big falls to be followed by big bounces. However, the data for January are likely to show only the most anemic of rebounds after a fall of 1.6% mom in December.

The problem UK retailers have faced in recent years is how to maintain consumer interest after the heavy discounts now offered in November in the Black Friday sales promotions. We view this development as essentially cannibalistic, robbing sales in December and January and this season that seems to have been the case.

We predict an increase of only 0.2% mom in January.”