UK: Earnings growth to be weighed down by negative base effects - Barclays

In the view of analysts at Barclays, the UK labor market report slated for release at 0830 today is likely to show no change in the earnings growth figures in the month of April.

Key Quotes:

“We expect ILO unemployment to increase again in April (+15K) driven by the fastest increase in the claimant count since 2011 as well as dwindling employment surveys. This should be enough to push unemployment up by 0.1pp to 4.3%. 

We expect yearly headline and core earnings growth to be weighed down by negative base effects and to move sideways in April (respectively 2.6%3m/y and 2.9%3m/y unchanged from previous).”