USD/INR: Indian Rupee to weaken further over the medium term – Rabobank

According to analysts from Raboban, the Indian Rupee could benefit in the short-term from a decline of the US Dollar but they see more weakens in INR over the medium to long term. 

Key Quotes: 

“We believe more INR weakness is likely in the medium to longer term. In the short term, INR could benefit from USD weakness (if the Fed signals more rate cuts than expected). And in the medium term, INR could benefit from a shift of production capacity away from China. Namely, we have highlighted India as one of the top 5 Asian countries where firms might re-locate production capacity due to the US China trade war.”

“In the medium to longer term, we believe INR will face pressure on multiple fronts, which will dominate. For example, tensions with Pakistan, looser monetary policy (as RBI responds to the recent weak growth figure) and a negative sentiment towards emerging markets as the US China war escalates and world trade and global economic growth slows.”