China: Clouds are lifting – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts point out that Chinese growth took a hit from the trade war in 2019 but rays of light have emerged, that suggest the worst may be behind us.

Key Quotes

“We expect a moderate increase in the manufacturing sector driven by stimulus and easing trade tensions.”

“The US-China trade war has calmed down again following the phase-one deal and we see a 50% chance that the US and China will strike a bigger deal in 2020 and more tariffs will be rolled back.”

“China has been the epicentre of the global slowdown and we expect the lift to activity to have a positive spillover to the rest of the world.”

“We expect only limited further policy stimulus from here and a slight appreciation of the CNY as activity bottoms and trade fears ease.”