Fed: Policy rates at the zero lower bound in the coming years – Rabobank

The obstacles do not seem insurmountable, so negative policy rates remain a possibility for the Fed, although they are likely to try other options before resorting to negative rates, per Rabobank.

Key quotes

“There is still room for additional asset purchases, reinforced forward guidance and extending the special lending facilities. And during the October 2019 discussion of the FOMC it seemed that the Committee would rather start some kind of yield curve control rather than resorting to negative policy rates.” 

“If the current toolkit is no longer sufficient, and preferred options such as yield curve control fail to do the job, the obstacles to negative policy rates do not appear insurmountable. By then the unanimous rejection of negative rates by the FOMC participants could falter.”

“If President Trump is re-elected, he could nominate a new Fed Chair who would be willing to lead the US into negative policy rate territory in 2022.”