When are the RBA minutes and how might they affect AUD/USD?

Early Tuesday morning, at 01:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release a minutes statement of the latest monetary policy meeting held during early-May.

The RBA’s May month monetary policy meeting matched wide market forecasts of no rate cut. However, fears of coronavirus-led economic losses spread pessimism around the event.

Although the Statement of Monetary Policy (SOMP) have already dimmed importance of the RBA minutes, traders will search for any signs of further easing into the statement.

Concerning the event, Westpac said, “The market will be looking for a little more colour on the views set out by the Bank in the Statement on Monetary Policy.”

On the other hand, TD Securities considered the event as having a little importance,

With the SOMP published and the Bank's baseline forecasts known, we doubt there will be anything new that should move the markets in the RBA Minutes. The RBA did include non bank rated bonds as eligible collateral for OMOs, so the Bank's thoughts on this and other developments may attract some attention.

How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?

While the RBA is in no mood to step back from monetary policy easing, as it shouldn’t considering the coronavirus (COVID-19) led crisis, any upbeat comments from the statement could help AUD/USD to extend the latest run-up. However, calls of further Quantitative Easing (QE) as well as any more pessimism might take helps from the Aussie-China tussle to trigger the pairs’ profit-booking after rising the most in seven weeks.

Technically, the pair’s drop below 100-day SMA level of 0.6512 will need a clear break under 0.6500 round-figure to recall Friday’s low of 0.6401. Other than that, a daily closing beyond 100-day SMA for the first time since late-January propels the quote further up towards April tops nearing 0.6570 and then to 0.6600 round-figure.

Key Notes

AUD/USD: Bulls cheer risk-on sentiment above 0.6500, RBA minutes in focus

AUD/USD Forecast: Bulls ready to challenge the 0.6600 figure

About the RBA minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.