Back
6 Aug 2014
EUR/USD downside limited – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Kasper Kirkegaard, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, the decline in the pair would be limited in the near term.
Key Quotes
“According to our short term financial models, yesterday’s decline in EUR/USD seems slightly overdone as the model now indicates that EUR/USD is oversold trading 1.3 standard deviation below the model’s fair value estimate of 1.3510”.
“Moreover, the latest IMM positioning data, 4 August, showed that investors remain significantly short EUR/USD as speculative accounts added further net EUR shorts last week and for the first time since May 2013 speculative EUR-positioning is currently below the 10th percentile while net long USD positioning is above the 90st percentile”.
“Hence, while we still expect that EUR/USD will gradually edge lower, primarily driven by a divergence in relative monetary policy, we believe that valuation and positioning are likely to be barriers for a rapid EUR weakening in the short run”.
Key Quotes
“According to our short term financial models, yesterday’s decline in EUR/USD seems slightly overdone as the model now indicates that EUR/USD is oversold trading 1.3 standard deviation below the model’s fair value estimate of 1.3510”.
“Moreover, the latest IMM positioning data, 4 August, showed that investors remain significantly short EUR/USD as speculative accounts added further net EUR shorts last week and for the first time since May 2013 speculative EUR-positioning is currently below the 10th percentile while net long USD positioning is above the 90st percentile”.
“Hence, while we still expect that EUR/USD will gradually edge lower, primarily driven by a divergence in relative monetary policy, we believe that valuation and positioning are likely to be barriers for a rapid EUR weakening in the short run”.