USD/THB forecasts at 37.50 and 38.00 for Q3 and Q4 this year – MUFG

USD/THB hit a low of 36.16 on 11th August but was bid thereafter. In the view of economists at MUFG Bank, the Thai bath may be weighed down by external downside risks for the rest of 2022.

USD/THB to fall to 37.250 and 36.250 in Q1 and Q2 next year

“A cloudy external environment may weigh on Thailand’s exports and GDP growth. We now forecast GDP growth at 2.9% and 3.5% for 2022 and 2023, down from 3.4% and 4.0% prior.” 

“We expect 75 bps of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 which may pale in comparison to other central bank’s tightening.”

“We forecast USD/THB at 37.500 and 38.000 for Q3 and Q4 this year, before decreasing to 37.250 and 36.250 in Q1 and Q2 next year.”